Professor Michael P. Clements
Professor of Econometrics
Research Division Lead
Specialisms
Location
ICMA Centre, Whiteknights Campus
Michael P Clements is Professor of Econometrics at the ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading. He obtained a DPhil in Econometrics from Nuffield College, University of Oxford in 1993, moved to Warwick University Economics Department as a Research Fellow in 1995, and became a full professor in 2007. He moved to Reading in 2013.
Mike’s interests are in the areas of time-series econometrics and forecasting, and he has published widely in academic journals on forecast evaluation, mixed-frequency data modelling, non-linear modelling and business cycle analysis, real-time modelling and forecasting, factor model forecasting, and the analysis of survey expectations. He has (co-)authored 5 books and over 100 papers in journals and chapters in books.
Mike became a Journal of Applied Econometrics Distinguished Author in 2008.
He served as an editor of the International Journal of Forecasting between 2001 and 2012, and since standing down from this role has served as an associate editor.
He was elected an Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters in 2014: http://forecasters.org/activities/funding-awards/fellows/.
He became series editor of the Palgrave Texts in Econometrics and Palgrave Advanced Texts in Econometrics in 2017.
He was elected a Fellow of the International Association for Applied Econometrics in 2018.
He became a member of the Editorial Advisory Board for the National Institute Economic Review in 2021.
All of Mike’s publications are available at http://ideas.repec.org/e/pcl24.html and some recent Discussion Papers at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=157383.
Reference: Clements, M. and Galvão, A. B. (2022) Density forecasting with BVAR models under macroeconomic data uncertainty. Journal of Applied Econometrics. ISSN 1099-1255 (In Press)
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. (2021) Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP. Journal of Applied Econometrics. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2884
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Galvao, A. B. (2021) Measuring the effects of expectations shocks. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 124. 104075. ISSN 0165-1889 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104075
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. (2021) Forecaster efficiency, accuracy and disagreement: evidence using individual-level survey data. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. ISSN 1538-4616 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12867
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2021) Rounding behaviour of professional macro-forecasters. International Journal of Forecasting, 37 (4). pp. 1614-1631. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.03.003
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Reade, J. J. (2020) Forecasting and forecast narratives: the Bank of England inflation reports. International Journal of Forecasting, 36 (4). pp. 1488-1500. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.08.013
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2020) Are some forecasters' probability assessments of macro variables better than those of others? Econometrics, 8 (2). 16. ISSN 2225-1146 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics8020016
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2020) Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? International Journal of Forecasting. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.003
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Castle, J. L., Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (2019) Forecasting: an essential introduction. Yale University Press, Connecticut, USA, pp240. ISBN 9780300244663
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2019) Macroeconomic survey expectations. Palgrave Texts in Econometrics. Palgrave Macmillan, pp214. ISBN 9783319972220 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-97223-7
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. (2019) Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data? International Journal of Forecasting, 35 (4). pp. 1240-1249. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.11.009
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Galvão, A. B. (2019) Data revisions and real-time forecasting. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.248
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Ana Beatriz Galvão
Reference: Clements, M. (2018) Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative? International Journal of Forecasting, 34 (2). pp. 181-198. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.10.004
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2018) Do macro-forecasters herd? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50 (2-3). pp. 265-292. ISSN 1538-4616 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12460
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. and Galvão, A. B. (2017) Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty. International Journal of Forecasting, 33 (3). pp. 591-604. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.01.004
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Ana Beatriz Galvão
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Galvão, A. B. (2017) Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 35 (3). pp. 389-406. ISSN 0735-0015 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2015.1076726
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A. B. Galvão
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2017) Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 35 (3). pp. 420-433. ISSN 0735-0015 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2015.1081596
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2016) Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment. International Journal of Forecasting, 32 (3). pp. 614-628. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.10.005
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. (2016) Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 100. pp. 661-675. ISSN 0167-9473 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2015.01.011
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. (2015) Do US macroeconomic forecasters exaggerate their differences? Journal of Forecasting, 34 (8). pp. 649-660. ISSN 1099-131X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2358
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Carriero, A., Clements, M. P. and Galvao, A. B. (2015) Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs. International Journal of Forecasting, 31 (3). pp. 757-768. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.05.007
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A. Carriero- A. Carriero- A. B. Galvao
Reference: Castle, J. L., Clements, M. and Hendry, D. (2015) Robust approaches to forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 31 (1). pp. 99-112. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.11.002
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements J. L. Castle- D. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. (2015) Are professional macroeconomic forecasters able to do better than forecasting trends? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 472 (2-3). pp. 349-382. ISSN 1538-4616 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12179
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. (2014) Forecast uncertainty—ex Ante and ex Post: U.S. inflation and output growth. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 32 (2). pp. 206-216. ISSN 0735-0015 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2013.859618
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. (2014) Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation. International Journal of Forecasting, 30 (1). pp. 99-117. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.010
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. (2014) US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968-2010. Journal of Forecasting, 33 (1). pp. 1-14. ISSN 1099-131X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2277
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. and Galvao, A.B. (2013) Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation. International Journal of Forecasting, 29 (4). pp. 698-714. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.09.003
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A.B. Galvao
Reference: Clements, M. and Galvao, A.B. (2013) Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28 (3). pp. 458-477. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2274
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A.B. Galvao
Reference: Castle, J. L., Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (2013) Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither? Journal of Econometrics, 177 (2). pp. 305-319. ISSN 0304-4076 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.04.015
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Jennifer L. Castle- David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. (2012) Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty. Studies in nonlinear dynamics & econometrics, 16 (1). pp. 1-25. ISSN 1558-3708 doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/1558-3708.1865
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. (2012) Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases? International Journal of Forecasting, 28 (2). pp. 297-308. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.09.001
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Galvao, A. B. (2012) Improving real-time estimates of output and inflation gaps with multiple-vintage models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 30 (4). pp. 554-562. ISSN 0735-0015 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2012.707588
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Ana Beatriz Galvao
Reference: Clements, M. and Hendry, D. (2011) Forecasting from mis-specified models in the presence of unanticipated location shifts. In: Clements, M. and Hendry, D. (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting. OUP USA, p. 271. ISBN 9780195398649
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Harvey, D. I. (2011) Combining probability forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 27 (2). pp. 208-223. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.12.016
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. I. Harvey
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2011) An empirical investigation of the effects of rounding on the SPF probabilities of decine and output growth histograms. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43 (1). pp. 207-220. ISSN 1538-4616 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00371.x
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2010) Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts. European Economic Review, 54 (4). pp. 536-549. ISSN 0014-2921 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.10.003
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Galvao, A. B. (2010) First announcements and real economic activity. European Economic Review, 54 (6). pp. 803-817. ISSN 0014-2921 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.12.010
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A. B. Galvao
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Harvey, D. I. (2010) Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25 (6). pp. 1028-1062. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1097
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David I. Harvey
Reference: Clements, M. (2009) Internal consistency of survey respondents' forecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters. In: Castle, J. L. and Shephard, N. (eds.) The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics. A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry. Oxford University Press, pp. 206-226. ISBN 9780199237197
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Harvey, D. I. (2009) Forecast combination and encompassing. In: Mills, T.C. and Patterson, K. (eds.) Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Volume 2: Applied Econometrics. Palgrave Macmillan, London, pp. 169-198. ISBN 9781403917997
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. I Harvey
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2009) Comments on “Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs”. International Journal of Forecasting, 25 (4). pp. 680-683. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.007
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. , Milas, C. and van Dijk, D. (2009) Forecasting returns and risk in financial markets using linear and nonlinear models. International Journal of Forecasting, 25 (2). pp. 215-217. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.01.003
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements C. Milas- D. van Dijk
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Galvao, A. B. (2009) Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24 (7). pp. 1187-1206. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1075
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A. B. Galvao
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (2008) Forecasting annual UK inflation using an econometric model over 1875-1991. In: Rapach, D.E. and Wohar, M.E. (eds.) Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty. Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Emerald Publishing, pp. 3-39. ISBN 9780444529428 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-8715(07)00201-1
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2008) Consensus and uncertainty: using forecast probabilities of output declines. International Journal of Forecasting, 24 (1). pp. 76-86. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.06.003
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. , Galvao, A. B. and Kim, J. H. (2008) Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility. Journal of Empirical Finance, 15 (4). pp. 729-750. ISSN 0927-5398 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2007.12.001
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A. B. Galvao- J. H. Kim
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, J. F. (2008) Economic forecasting in a changing world. Capitalism and Society, 3 (2). ISSN 1932-0213 doi: https://doi.org/10.2202/1932-0213.1039
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements John F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Galvão, A. B. (2008) Macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data: forecasting output growth in the United States. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 26 (4). pp. 546-554. ISSN 0735-0015 doi: https://doi.org/10.1198/073500108000000015
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Ana Beatriz Galvão
Reference: Clements, M. , Joutz, F. and Stekler, H. O. (2007) An evaluation of the forecasts of the Federal Reserve: A pooled approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22 (1). pp. 121-136. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.954
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements F. Joutz- H. O Stekler
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Kim, J.H. (2007) Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51 (7). pp. 3580-3594. ISSN 0167-9473 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2006.09.012
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements J.H. Kim
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Gãlvao, A.B. (2006) Combining predictors & combining information in modelling: forecasting US recession probabilities and output growth. In: Milas, C., Rothman, P. A., van Dijk, D. and Wildasin, D. E. (eds.) Non-linear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles. Contributions to Economic Analysis, 276. Elsevier Science, pp. 57-73. ISBN 978444518385
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A.B. Gãlvao
Reference: Clements, M. and Hendry, D. (2006) Forecasting with breaks. In: Elliot, G., Granger, C.W.J. and Timmermann, A. (eds.) Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 1. North Holland, pp. 605-651. ISBN 9780444513953
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2006) Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts. Empirical Economics, 31 (1). pp. 49-64. ISSN 0377-7332 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0014-9
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (2005) Guest editors' introduction: information in economic forecasting. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67 (Suppl. S1). pp. 713-753. ISSN 1468-0084 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2005.00139.x
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (2005) Evaluating a model by forecast performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67 (Suppl.S1). pp. 931-956. ISSN 1468-0084 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2005.00146.x
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Witt, R. (2005) Forecasting aggregate quarterly crime series. The Manchester School, 73 (6). pp. 709-727. ISSN 1467-9957 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2005.00473.x
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Robert Witt
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2005) Evaluating econometric forecasts of economic and financial variables. Palgrave Texts in Econometrics. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp186. ISBN 9781403941572
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. and Krolzig, H.-M. (2004) Can regime switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output? International Journal of Finance & Economics, 9 (1). pp. 1-14. ISSN 1099-1158 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.231
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements H-M Krolzig
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2004) Evaluating the Bank of England density forecasts of inflation. The Economic Journal, 114 (498). pp. 844-866. ISSN 1468-0297 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00246.x
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Hendry, D. F. and Clements, M. P. (2004) Pooling of forecasts. Econometrics Journal, 7 (1). pp. 1-31. ISSN 1368-423X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2004.00119.x
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Galvao, A. B. (2004) A comparison of tests of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure. International Journal of Forecasting, 20 (2). pp. 219-236. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.001
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A. B. Galvao
Reference: Clements, M. P. , Franses, P. H. and Swanson, N. R. (2004) Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models. International Journal of Forecasting, 20 (2). pp. 169-183. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.10.004
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements P. H. Franses- N. R. Swanson
Reference: Clements, M. P. (2003) Some possible directions for future research. International Journal of Forecasting, 19 (1). pp. 1-3. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00037-7
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Sensier, M. (2003) Asymmetric output gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark-up pricing models: evidence for the US and the UK. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 50 (4). pp. 359-374. ISSN 1467-9485 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.5004001
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements M. Sensier
Reference: Clements, M. P. , Franses, P. H., Smith, J. and van Dijk, D. (2003) On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting. Journal of Forecasting, 22 (5). pp. 359-375. ISSN 1099-131X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.863
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements P. H. Franses- J. Smith- D. van Dijk
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Galvao, A. B. C. (2003) Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 7 (4). pp. 567-585. ISSN 1365-1005 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100502020163
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A. B. C. Galvao
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Taylor, N. (2003) Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18 (4). pp. 445-456. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.703
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements N. Taylor
Reference: Hendry, D. F. and Clements, M. P. (2003) Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research. Economic Modelling, 20 (2). pp. 301-329. ISSN 0264-9993 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(02)00055-X
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Krolzig, H.-M. (2003) Business cycle asymmetries: characterisation and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21 (1). pp. 196-211. ISSN 0735-0015 doi: https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102288618892
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements H-M Krolzig
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. (2002) Explaining forecast failure in macroeconomics. In: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. (eds.) A Companion to Economic Forecasting. Blackwells, pp. 539-571. ISBN 9780631215691
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. (2002) An overview of economic forecasting. In: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. (eds.) A Companion to Economic Forecasting. Blackwells, pp. 1-18. ISBN 9781405126236
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. and Hendry, J. (2002) A companion to economic forecasting. Blackwell Companions to Contemporary Economics (Book 7). Wiley-Blackwell, Massachusetts USA, pp616. ISBN 9780631215691
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements John Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Smith, J. (2002) Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches. International Journal of Forecasting, 18 (3). pp. 397-407. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00126-1
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements J. Smith
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (2002) Modelling methodology and forecast failure. Econometrics Journal, 5 (2). pp. 319-344. ISSN 1368-423X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423X.00086
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Galvao, A. B. C. (2002) Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output. Empirical Economics, 27 (4). pp. 569-586. ISSN 1435-8921 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s001810100103
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements A. B. C. Galvao
Reference: Clements, M. and Hendry, D. (2001) Explaining the results of the M3 forecasting competition (Part of Commentaries on the M3-Competition). International Journal of Forecasting, 17. pp. 550-554. ISSN 0169-2070
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. and Smith, J. (2001) Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20. pp. 133-148. ISSN 0261-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00039-5
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements J. Smith
Reference: Clements, M. and Hendry, J. (2001) Forecasting with difference and trend stationary models. Econometrics Journal, 4. pp. 1-19. ISSN 1368-423X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423X.00050
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements John Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. and Taylor, N. (2001) Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models. International Journal of Forecasting., 17 (2). pp. 247-267. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00079-0
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements N. Taylor
Reference: Clements, M. and Hendry, D. (2001) An historical perspective on forecast errors. National Institute Economic Review, 177. pp. 70-82. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/002795010117700109
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. and Taylor, N. (2001) Robust evaluation of fixed-event forecast rationality. Journal of Forecasting, 20. pp. 285-295. ISSN 1099-131X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.806
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements N. Taylor
Reference: Clements, M. and Smith, J. (2000) Evaluating the forecast densities of linear and non-linear models: applications to output growth and unemployment. Journal of Forecasting, 19 (4). pp. 255-276. ISSN 1099-131X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/1099-131X(200007)19:4<255::AID-FOR773>3.0.CO;2-G
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements J. Smith
Reference: Hendry, D. and Clements, M. (2000) Economic forecasting in the face of structural breaks. In: Holly, S. and Weale, M. (eds.) Econometric Modelling: Techniques and Applications. Cambridge University Press, pp. 3-37. ISBN 9780521650694
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Madlener, R. (1999) Seasonality, cointegration and forecasting UK residential energy demand. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 46 (2). pp. 185-206. ISSN 1467-9485 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.00128
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Reinhardt Madlener
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (1999) On winning forecasting competitions in economics. Spanish Economic Review, 1 (2). pp. 123-160. ISSN 1435-5477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s101080050006
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. and Hendry, D. (1999) Forecasting non-stationary economic time series. MIT, pp392. ISBN 9780262531894
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Smith, J. (1999) A Monte Carlo study of the forecasting performance of empirical SETAR models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14 (2). pp. 123-141. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199903/04)14:2<123::AID-JAE493>3.0.CO;2-K
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Jeremy Smith
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (1998) Forecasting economic processes. International Journal of Forecasting, 14 (1). pp. 111-131. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00057-5
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. and Hendry, D. (1998) Forecasting Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0521634809
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements D. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Krolzig, H.-M. (1998) A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP. Econometrics Journal, 1 (1). pp. 47-75. ISSN 1368-423X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423X.11004
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Hans-Martin Krolzig
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Smith, J. (1997) The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models. International Journal of Forecasting, 13 (4). pp. 463-475. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00017-4
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Jeremy Smith
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (1997) An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 13 (3). pp. 341-356. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00022-8
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. (1997) Evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 16 (4). pp. 225-239. ISSN 1099-131X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199707)16:4<225::AID-FOR656>3.0.CO;2-L
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (1996) Intercept corrections and structural change. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11 (5). pp. 475-494. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199609)11:5<475::AID-JAE409>3.0.CO;2-9
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (1996) Multi-step estimation for forecasting. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58 (4). pp. 657-684. ISSN 1468-0084 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1996.mp58004005.x
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. (1995) Rationality and the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasting. The Economic Journal, 105. pp. 410-420. ISSN 1468-0297
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (1995) Macro-economic forecasting and modelling. The Economic Journal, 105. pp. 1001-1013. ISSN 1468-0297
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (1995) Forecasting in cointegrated systems. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10 (2). pp. 127-146. ISSN 1099-1255 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3950100204
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Hendry, D. F. and Clements, M. P. (1994) Can econometrics improve economic forecasting? Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 130. pp. 267-298.
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. P. and Hendry, D. F. (1993) On the limitations of comparing mean squared forecast errors. Journal of Forecasting, 12 (8). pp. 617-637. ISSN 1099-131X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980120802
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry
Reference: Clements, M. and Mizon, G. E. (1991) Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series: VAR and structural models. European Economic Review, 35 (4). pp. 918-922. ISSN 0014-2921 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(91)90043-I
Henley faculty authors:
Professor Michael P. Clements Grayham E. MizonEconometric Analysis for Finance (new for 2022/23)
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Building on the material introduced in Quantitative Methods for Finance, this module covers a number of more advanced techniques that are relevant for financial applications, and in particular for modelling...
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