Can we predict when football managers are no longer effective?

As the new football season commences, the media is speculating on who will be the first manager to be sacked. Whilst economists have used their models to predict football events, academics from the ICMA Centre have developed a model to see if they could predict when a football manager is no longer being effective.

Football manager

But does sacking a football manager even work? Professor Adrian Bell and Professor Chris Brooks, along with their co-author Dr Tom Markham, discuss the model in Henley Business School's Leading Insights.

A straightforward method would be to measure good performance by the points achieved against total wage spend per club. However, their model includes other factors such as as the different resources that clubs have access to. Find out more here.

Professor Adrian Bell

Research Dean, Prosperity and Resilience
Adrian is Chair in the History of Finance and Research Dean, Prosperity and Resilience.

Professor Chris Brooks

Professor in Finance
Chris Brooks is Professor of Finance at the ICMA Centre. He was formerly Professor of Finance at the Cass Business School, London. He holds a PhD and a BA in Economics and Econometrics, both from the University of Reading. His areas of research interest include asset pricing, fund management, behavioural...
Published 7th August 2019
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