Dr Chardin Wese Simen

'Dr Chardin Wese Simen

Dr Chardin Wese Simen

  • Lecturer in finance

Contact details

Profile & Expertise

Chardin is a Lecturer of finance at the ICMA Centre. Prior to joining the Centre in 2015, he was a faculty member at the University of Liverpool. He holds a PhD in Finance from the ICMA Centre at the University of Reading (2013), and his main research interests are commodity markets, derivatives, financial econometrics and risk management.
Chardin has had his work published in academic journals, including the Journal of Banking and Finance, and the Journal of Empirical Finance. He has also presented his work at leading academic conferences, such as the meetings of the American Finance Association (AFA), the Econometrics Society (ES) and the Western Finance Association (WFA).

Specialisms

  • Derivatives Markets
  • Financial Econometrics
  • Commodities Markets

Key publications, books, research & papers

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Article

Variance risk in commodity markets

Prokopczuk, M. , Symeonidis, L. and Wese Simen, C. (2017) Variance risk in commodity markets. Journal of Banking and Finance, 81. pp. 136-149. ISSN 0378-4266 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.05.003

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We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document comovements between the realized payoffs of commodity, equity and bond variance swaps. Similar results hold for expected variance swap payoffs. Furthermore, we show that both realized and expected commodity variance swap payoffs are distinct from the realized and expected commodity futures returns, indicating that variance risk is unspanned by commodity futures.

Professor Marcel Prokopczuk, CFA

Professor Marcel Prokopczuk, CFA

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Dr Chardin Wese Simen

Dr Chardin Wese Simen

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Article

Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500

Neumann, M., Prokopczuk, M. and Simen, C. W. (2016) Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500. Journal of Banking and Finance, 69. pp. 72-83. ISSN 0378-4266 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.03.013

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We analyze the risk premia embedded in the S&P 500 spot index and option markets. We use a long time-series of spot prices and a large panel of option prices to jointly estimate the diffusive stock risk premium, the price jump risk premium, the diffusive variance risk premium and the variance jump risk premium. The risk premia are statistically and economically significant and move over time. Investigating the economic drivers of the risk premia, we are able to explain up to 63 % of these variations.

Professor Marcel Prokopczuk, CFA

Professor Marcel Prokopczuk, CFA

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Dr Chardin Wese Simen

Dr Chardin Wese Simen

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Article

Do jumps matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from energy markets

Prokopczuk, M. , Symeonidis, L. and Wese Simen, C. (2016) Do jumps matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from energy markets. Journal of Futures Markets, 36 (8). pp. 758-792. ISSN 1096-9934 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.21759

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This paper characterizes the dynamics of jumps and analyzes their importance for volatility forecasting. Using high-frequency data on four prominent energy markets, we perform a model-free decomposition of realized variance into its continuous and discontinuous components. We find strong evidence of jumps in energy markets between 2007 and 2012. We then investigate the importance of jumps for volatility forecasting. To this end, we estimate and analyze the predictive ability of several Heterogenous Autoregressive (HAR) models that explicitly capture the dynamics of jumps. Conducting extensive in-sample and out-of-sample analyses, we establish that explicitly modeling jumps does not significantly improve forecast accuracy. Our results are broadly consistent across our four energy markets, forecasting horizons, and loss functions

Professor Marcel Prokopczuk, CFA

Professor Marcel Prokopczuk, CFA

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Dr Chardin Wese Simen

Dr Chardin Wese Simen

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Article

Time-variations in commodity price jumps

Diewald, L., Prokopczuk, M. and Wese Simen, C. (2015) Time-variations in commodity price jumps. Journal of Empirical Finance, 31. pp. 72-84. ISSN 0927-5398 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.02.004

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In this paper, we study jumps in commodity prices. Unlike assumed in existing models of commodity price dynamics, a simple analysis of the data reveals that the probability of tail events is not constant but depends on the time of the year, i.e. exhibits seasonality. We propose a stochastic volatility jump–diffusion model to capture this seasonal variation. Applying the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology, we estimate our model using 20 years of futures data from four different commodity markets. We find strong statistical evidence to suggest that our model with seasonal jump intensity outperforms models featuring a constant jump intensity. To demonstrate the practical relevance of our findings, we show that our model typically improves Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts.

Professor Marcel Prokopczuk, CFA

Professor Marcel Prokopczuk, CFA

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Dr Chardin Wese Simen

Dr Chardin Wese Simen

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Article

The importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting

Prokopczuk, M. and Wese Simen, C. (2014) The importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting. Journal of Banking and Finance, 40. pp. 303-320. ISSN 0378-4266 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.002

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In this paper, we study the role of the volatility risk premium for the forecasting performance of implied volatility. We introduce a non-parametric and parsimonious approach to adjust the model-free implied volatility for the volatility risk premium and implement this methodology using more than 20 years of options and futures data on three major energy markets. Using regression models and statistical loss functions, we find compelling evidence to suggest that the risk premium adjusted implied volatility significantly outperforms other models, including its unadjusted counterpart. Our main finding holds for different choices of volatility estimators and competing time-series models, underlying the robustness of our results.

Professor Marcel Prokopczuk, CFA

Professor Marcel Prokopczuk, CFA

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Dr Chardin Wese Simen

Dr Chardin Wese Simen

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Taught modules

Quantitative Methods for Finance

The module covers the building blocks of econometrics and analytical techniques used in finance.  Via case studies and computer modelling exercises, students learn how to apply these techniques to real data. Emphasis is placed on practical applications of the techniques in the global financial…

The module covers the building blocks of econometrics and analytical techniques used in finance.  Via case studies and computer modelling exercises, students learn how to apply these techniques to real data. Emphasis is placed on practical applications of the techniques in the global financial…

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Work Placement and Project

This module gives students the opportunity to pursue a work placement with an external organisation broadly related to the general sphere of their degree studies. The aim of the module is to allow participants to gain work experience in a career path of interest, develop a wide range of…

This module gives students the opportunity to pursue a work placement with an external organisation broadly related to the general sphere of their degree studies. The aim of the module is to allow participants to gain work experience in a career path of interest, develop a wide range of…

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