Skip to main content

The markets got it wrong again - time to bet on uncertainty?

The markets got it wrong, again

Shutterstock 624878165 l1

The financial markets thought they were going to get a strong and stable result (at least until late yesterday), what they didn’t want was uncertainty, but the British electorate has given them confusion. So whilst the markets have probably got it wrong again, with strong support for the pound (predicting a Tory victory), the reaction is now mixed.

The currency markets are down, and this has impacted on the rise of the FTSE 100, but so far the markets are steady awaiting news from the current prime minister - we have seen nothing like the reaction after the shock of Brexit. Despite media hype and also Labour ambition, it seems only a Conservative government is realistic either in a minority or with the DUP. The biggest threat now to the markets is the Brexit negotiations and the UK negotiating hand is significantly weakened but on a positive it looks likely only a soft Brexit would be palatable - unless of course we have another election in October...

By Professor Adrian Bell

Time to bet on uncertainty

The only thing certain is that we are living uncertain times. The markets don’t seem too surprised on the election results, but until a clearer picture emerges on the political front regarding government and the (possible change in the) persona of the prime minister, volatility in most financial markets will prevail. Time to bet on it? It is hard to predict directional changes; but whatever the chaos, a crash is not guaranteed.

By Dr Emese Lazar

Published 9 June 2017

You might also like

Two ICMA Centre academics invited to speak at prestigious international conference

28 January 2014
Professor Adrian Bell, Head of the ICMA Centre, and Volker Nienhaus, Visiting Professor, have been invited to speak at the upcoming conference organised by the CFA Institute, “Realising our Potential: Investing for Sustainable Growth”, 9-10 April- in Jordan. The conference is the fifth Annual CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference and aims to bring together industry leaders.

ICMA Centre MSc students to be granted ICMA IFID upon degree completion

29 August 2008
The ICMA Centre at Henley Business School, University of Reading is delighted to announce that students on seven of its Masters degrees will be granted the well regarded ICMA International Fixed Income and Derivatives (IFID) Certificate upon successful completion of their degree.

ICMA Centre Students Beat World-Class Finance Schools in International Trading Competition

2 February 2006