Long-Run Restrictions and Survey Forecasts of Output, Consumption and Investment

We consider whether imposing long-run restrictions on survey respondents' long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions are motivated by the belief that the macro-variables consumption, investment and output move together in the long run, and that this should be evident in long-horizon forecasts. The restrictions are imposed by exponential-tilting of simple auxiliary forecast densities. We find a modest overall improvement in forecast accuracy of around 7% on MSFE for the consumption-output ratio, but there are times when much larger gains were realizable. The transformation of the data/forecasts on which accuracy is assessed is shown to play an important role.

Published on 20th March 2014
Authors Michael P Clements
Series Reference 2014-2
External link http://ssrn.com/abstract=2412640

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