Discussion Papers

The ICMA Centre is dedicated to high quality academic research in all financial markets, broadly defined. Well over 100 discussion papers are available to download (see menu on left). 

2014 Series

All discussion papers are downloadable on the SSRN website.

Real-Time Factor Model Forecasting and the Effects of Instability

Reference: 2014-5
Authors: Michael P. Clements

We show that factor forecasting models deliver real-time gains over autoregressive models for US real activity variables during the recent period, but are less successful for nominal variables. The gains are largely due to the Financial Crisis period, and are primarily at the shortest (one quarter ahead) horizon. Excluding the pre-Great Moderation years from the factor forecasting model estimation periodContinue reading


Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth

Reference: 2014-4
Authors: Michael P Clements and Ana Beatriz Galv√£o

We find that model estimates of the term structure of ex ante or perceived macro uncertainty are more in line with realized uncertainty than survey respondents’ perceptions for both inflation and output growth. Survey estimates contain short-term vari- ation in short-horizon uncertainty which is less evident in the model-based estimates. We consider the extent to which these short-term variations coincideContinue reading


A Multi-Asset Option Approximation for General Stochastic Processes

Reference: 2014-3
Authors: Juan C Arismendi

We derived a model-free analytical approximation of the price of a multi-asset option defined over an arbitrary multivariate process, applying a semi-parametric expansion of the unknown risk-neutral density with the moments. The analytical expansion termed as the Multivariate Generalised Edgeworth Expansion (MGEE) is an infinite series over the derivatives of the known continuous time density. The expected value of the density expansion is calculated to approximateContinue reading


Long-Run Restrictions and Survey Forecasts of Output, Consumption and Investment

Reference: 2014-2
Authors: Michael P Clements

We consider whether imposing long-run restrictions on survey respondents’ long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions are motivated by the belief that the macro-variables consumption, investment and output move together in the long run, and that this should be evident in long-horizon forecasts. The restrictions are imposed by exponential-tilting of simple auxiliary forecast densities. We find a modest overallContinue reading


Did Purchasing Power Parity Hold in Medieval Europe?

Reference: 2014-1
Authors: Adrian R. Bell, Chris Brooks and Tony K Moore

This paper employs a unique, hand-collected dataset of exchange rates for five major currencies (the lira of Barcelona, the pound sterling of England, the pond groot of Flanders, the florin of Florence and the livre tournois of France) to consider whether the law of one price and purchasing power parity held in Europe during the late fourteenth and early fifteenth centuries. Using single seriesContinue reading